Scenarios of e‑Government in 2010 and implications for strategy design

Abstract

This contribution focuses on e‑Government as a comprehensive change programme and develops alternative scenarios with a view towards 2010. Empirical evidence of substantial risks to a successful implementation and operation of e‑Government calls for a forward‑looking approach and possible ways of correcting a wide‑spread neglect of long‑term innovation risks. The paper explores the scenario method as an established instrument for improving strategic decisions in a context of change, uncertainty and complex environments. Its application in a Europe‑wide research project leads to three macro‑scenarios with divergent implications for e‑Government prospects. The conclusions suggest particular requirements for developing more robust e‑Government strategies and encourage a wider use of scenario processes.